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Friday, December 2, 2016

Market Outlook

Fear of Italian referendum over the weekend cause a broad sell down across all markets in Asia except the Singapore market which has been enjoying its longest rally in recent memory.

Italian PM  Matteo Renzi's job are on the line Sunday, the PM has said he'd resign if the nation vote no to his reforms. After Brexit and Trump’s election, investors aren’t taking chances.

The global bond rout continued as investors speculated Donald Trump’s policies will fuel inflation.

This blog believe  a further bond rout, would start to impact equities negatively when the current switching out of bond into stocks theme runs out of steam.  This blog believe  at some point between 2.5% and 2.8%  on the 10-year Treasury, equity investors would start view the bond selloff as negative for stock, where bonds and stocks will go down together, a double whammy that will cause a global equity sell off. This will be compounded the  continuing strength of the US dollar in a rising rates environment. It could  trigger a renewed short squeeze on emerging markets and  corporates which have borrowed US dollars .

In the absence a calamity in  the stock market it will be very hard for the Fed not to raise rates in December.

Nov 2016 Master The Market Class Graduates

Thursday, December 1, 2016


Oil inspired rally failed to hold on te DOW. Investors went on a buying rampage on news of OPEC agreement to cut oil supply. The oil rally holds but DOW did not. Investors sold off towards the last hour of trade. It was a significant day because the rally came with huge volume. For now dow is capped at 19230. This blog will be bearish if dow breaks 18054. Any break below this level could take the dow to 18600. With the OPEC out of the way the market focus will shift ti the Italian Referendum.

For Illustration Purpose Only

Wednesday, November 30, 2016


Bull could be exhausted soon. Hit long term resistance at 17.50 today. Could pull back to 17.00 and 16.5 which is the next interim support.

For Illustration Purpose Only

Friday, November 25, 2016

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield

Bond 35 years bull run could have ended with the arrival of Trumpnomics. Having broken above the 2.25 resistance, the yield could be heading for 2.9. The bond market will continue to discount Trump's ultra high growth policies till he takes office on 20 Jan. Higher yield will keep the dollar bull intact. Yen will be particularly weak because of Kuroda's policies to set JGB at zero.

For Illustration Purpose Only

Fear Of `No Vote' For Italian Referendum Next Week Could Bring Fear Into The Market Next Week

Constitutional reform vote on Italian referendum due to be held on 4 Dec could bring renew anxiety and uncertainty into European market next week.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is at risk of losing judging from  final polls published last Friday before blackout period. Renzi has pledged to step down and  if he does not win and the concern is that he will be forced to call a general election which could be won by anti-euro “populists” who could threatened another “Brexit”. As 4 Dec draws nearer next week, market will take a risk off approach, selling into the current rally. Euro dollar , Dax and European market could faced a selloff when it becomes clearer that Renzi will be losing. Gold could shine again!

Thursday, November 24, 2016


The bleeding stops, the healing starts. Broke above its 2.81 strong resistance today today triggering a wake of short covering. The upward momentum should continue with the first target at 2.96 and subsequently 3.04 and 3.22

For Illustration Purpose Only

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Dow - Red Alert

Hit multi year trend cycle chart point at 19023. Sharp correction could bring it down to 16700.

For Illustration Purpose Only

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Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Comfort Delgro

Institution selling not over yet. Tested 2.4 six times in the last 2 weeks. Selling pressures likely to cause a breakdown below key support at 2.40. A break below 2.40 will see the stock heading for 2.34 abd 2.27 with eventual target at 2.15.

For Illustration Purpose Only