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Friday, September 23, 2016

STI Relative Performance

The Week Ahead - Market Moving Events - Oil Producer Meeting and US Presidential Debate

Major Oil Producer Informal Meeting In Algeria
The world's biggest oil producers  led by Saudi Arabia and non-cartel members headed by Russia  will meets  in Algeria next week from 26 – 28 Sep   to negotiate an oil production freeze in order to stabilize prices. While many of such meetings previously had disappointed, this time round looks promising, the most  compelling reason to reach a collective agreement this blog believe is that many of the biggest  producers are close to producing at maximum capacity and  there is little  to lose by agreeing to cap output at current levels. Even more compelling  is Saudi’s planto issue debts worth 15 billion  on the international market next month for the first time and by lifting oil prices they hope to give to market more confident that things are looking up.

US Presidential Debate
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump meets on 26 Sep for the 2016 US presidential election debate which we be the  most-watched US presidential debate in history. While Clinton now holds a the marginal lead on national polls ,  the race too close to call.  If any one candidate gain more than 2-3% lead after the debate,  history shows the candidate is likely to win the election causing the market to go into wild gyration. If Donald Trumps leads after the debate stock market will colapse and  Gold will surge. This blog believes Trump could make Clinton look like a little girl judging by is oratory credential. This blog stay cautious ahead of the event.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016


Its about time for the next leg up! After reaching a high of 1375, this blog have a retracement target on the tradeplan of 1310 which was hit today. This blog has been long term bullish on Gold , believe that current correction is only a pullback in a cyclical Bull Trend. Gold could be headed for its first resistance at 1345 and will eventually hit its last high at 1375.


Best World

On 8 Sep , this blog said that its time for this stock to correct. Today we saw a significant fall will a high volume. It is heading for its next support at 1.48 and will eventually hit its medium term target of 1.27 before rebounding.

Best World

Tuesday, September 20, 2016



Singpost rebounded to 1.465 today after Maybank KE report  TP raised 37%  to SGD1.77.  The stock should head to 1.48 to 1.50 level in the short term. I the price can stay above 1.50 we could expect further upside at 1.555.

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Friday, September 16, 2016

Big Week Ahead - FOMC and BOJ Meets To Set Direction For Monetary Policies

The markets continues to gyrated with to every Fed official speech. We will know Fed decision on 21 Sep morning and the outcome of BOJ meeting in the afternoon. Odds of Fed raising rates dipped to 18% before FOMC meets next week after retail sales disappoint and former US Treasury Secretary declaring that there is no compelling case for Sep rate hike. What the Bank of Japan is going to announce, be it more easing or more tightening, is anybody’s guess. The uncertainty is creating a potentially extremely perilous situation for investors and traders. Since Fed is going to announce first on 21 Sep morning and BOJ later in the afternoon BOJ may take the queue from Fed.after the disastrous response to the Negative Interest rate  policy announced at the end of January, this blog do not believe Kuroda will further expand on this policy

Some of the recent speeches made by Kuroda also signal that  Kuroda would not implement more NIRP, however he might introduce something to replace it. He could favour monetary policy and fiscal policy in terms of the monetisation of infrastructure stimulus.

Let's wait on  the central bankers to set the macro monetary direction before deciding on the next move!

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

STI Trade Plan

Last Friday (9 Sep), this blog turned bearish on STI when it could not hold above 2880,a significant support. This blog establish the first retacement target at 2826 which was achieved today. Going forward STI is expected to be weak and could test the 2793  and 2743 support levels subsequently. STI will continue to trade rangebound and the key levels are stipulated in the tradeplan on the chart. 


Hang Seng Index

While most analyst were calling a buy on Hong Kong stocks last friday (9 sep) this blog saw the index hitting its target on the trade plan. The explosion of voulme last friday was a further confirmation the index could have peaked. Although HSI closed today near its support, the price action suggest the index is poised to break lower to 23000 and 22800 respectively

Hang Seng Index

Friday, September 9, 2016

Master The Market With Price an Volume Technique Course in August 2016 - Students' video Testimonial

US 10 Year Treasury Yield

It has been climbing up from a low of 1.36% to recent high of 1.63%. The short term key resistance is 1.63%. A break above this level could cause a surge in USD and correspondingly weakness in emerging markets and commodities. This blog thinks there will be a likely breakout above 1.70% causing a correction in global markets in the weeks ahead.

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield


It took 3 months for STI to gather enough strength to break above the 2881 level on 6 Sep and broke below it within 3 days. The price action looks rather bearish, the market is expected to be weak next week. Could could test next support at 2852 and 2826.